Premium Add-on instruments
Terrain measured rather than narrated: dealer positioning, regime labels that never repaint, dependence-aware positioning breaks, cascade structure and joint change points — each published with its uncertainty attached.
Receipt page · proof before pitchHow the Premium Add-on suite measuresVersioned methodology · pre-registrations · proof corpus · changelog · recomputation steps- Instruments
- 05
- Published measurements
- NOT YET PUBLISHED
The problem, in the customer’s words
Everybody tells me where positioning is stretched and which regime we are in. Nobody tells me how often that has happened before, or what actually followed each time it did.
Not a customer quotation. Nothing on this site is attributed to a customer, and no testimonial appears anywhere on it — this is the problem the family exists for, written the plain way it gets put.
What this family is for
The family that measures terrain — the structure of the ground a position is standing on, described with its uncertainty attached and never converted into a forecast.
The FX Gamma Map reads dealer positioning from listed FX options: strike-level open-interest congregation, risk reversals, skew migration, expiry walls. The Regime Feed identifies volatility and liquidity regimes under one hard constraint — a printed label never repaints — and states on every surface that prefix stability costs accuracy at regime boundaries. Positioning / COT Intelligence applies dependence-aware change detection to Commitments-of-Traders data and publishes an honest null wherever the data cannot support a break call.
The Chain Response Atlas maps how forced-flow cascades have propagated through leveraged positioning, with resolutions and fizzles both published and the sample size visible. The Joint Change-Point Monitor watches a multivariate panel as a single object — Hotelling T² with Ledoit–Wolf covariance shrinkage, CUSUM, and PELT — and attributes every detected break to the channels that carried it.
Terrain is the category where narration is cheapest and measurement rarest. Every instrument here draws the same line on every surface: it describes the structure you are standing on, publishes its uncertainty and its sample sizes, and leaves the directional judgement — and the risk — with you.
The 5 instruments in this suite
Every card states both halves: what the instrument measures, and what it does not establish. The figure on each card is an anticipated pre-launch indication, priced out in full in the table below, and no measurement from this suite has been published yet.
Dealer terrain from listed FX options — strike walls, skew migration, expiry gravity.
Anticipated£229/mo · £2,290/yr
- Measures
- From a listed FX options chain: strike-level open-interest congregation by strike and expiry, risk reversals and skew migration tracked as a dated series, and expiry gravity mapped forward — every map carrying the chain snapshot it was computed from.
- Does not establish
- It does not forecast direction, and it is not a disclosure of dealer books — open interest is the market’s aggregate, not any dealer’s inventory. It sees only the listed chain, so the terrain is a real but partial view, and the map says so on its face rather than in a footnote.
- P11
Regime Feed
State-space identification of market regimes in real-time.
Anticipated£69/mo · £690/yr
- Measures
- State-space volatility and liquidity regimes per instrument under one hard constraint — a printed label never repaints — each shipping with its confidence, with boundary bars marked as boundary bars, and with recomputable transition receipts.
- Does not establish
- It does not predict the next regime; no regime model honestly can. It identifies the one you are in, with stated lag and stated uncertainty, and it states on every surface that prefix stability costs accuracy at regime boundaries.
Resolves or fizzles — always published with n visible.
Anticipated£79/mo · £790/yr
- Measures
- Positioning z-scores with the lookback window printed beside each number, flip detection recorded with its date and magnitude, dependence-aware joint change detection with per-category attribution, and the resolve-versus-fizzle split published with its denominator.
- Does not establish
- It does not predict direction, and it does not make a weekly, lagged, self-reported regulatory dataset behave like a real-time one — every reading carries both its report date and its publication date. It never publishes a rate without its n, on any surface.
Map the cascading liquidations of leveraged market participants.
Anticipated£349/yr founding rate
- Measures
- Cascade anatomy: how forced flow has propagated across price levels and instruments, separated from ordinary discretionary selling, with resolutions and fizzles both counted and the preconditions described as observed structure.
- Does not establish
- It does not predict cascades. No map does. It is a record of how forced flow has propagated, under what preconditions and at what completion rates — a structural atlas, not a signal. Any use of it for timing is your judgement and your risk.
When the regime breaks, know which series moved — and when.
Anticipated£560/mo flat · £5,600/yr
- Measures
- A multivariate panel watched as one object: Hotelling-T² over a Ledoit–Wolf shrunken covariance for joint mean shifts, CUSUM for sequential drift, PELT for retrospective segmentation, per-channel attribution of every break, and thresholds calibrated by surrogate rather than by asymptotic formula.
- Does not establish
- It does not predict the next break. Change-point detection is the honest accounting of breaks that have already occurred — as early as the evidence permits, and never before it. An instrument claiming to detect a regime change before the data contains one is describing its own noise.
What the Premium Add-on suite is anticipated to cost
Every figure below is an anticipated pre-launch indication read from the instrument catalogue — not a confirmed price, not a quote and not an offer. Nothing on this site is purchasable: there is no checkout, no cart and no payment link on any page. The launch list is the only thing open.
| Instrument | Billed monthly | Billed annually |
|---|---|---|
| P7 FX Gamma Mappending the listed-options data licence | £229/mo | £2,290/yr |
| P11 Regime Feed£129/mo (£1,290/yr on annual billing) with weekly interpretation cadence | £69/mo | £690/yr |
| P12 Positioning / COT Intelligence | £79/mo | £790/yr |
| P14 Chain Response Atlasannual research letter; list £495–595/yr | Annual only | £349/yr founding rate |
| P17 Joint Change-Point Monitor | £560/mo flat | £5,600/yr |
The family arithmetic
What licensing every instrument in this family separately would come to. The lines stay apart where their units differ — a per-seat licence, a flat account licence and a scoped engagement cannot be added into one number, and a single tidier figure would be a false one.
- Per account, billed monthly
- £937/moP7 + P11 + P12 + P17, summed at their monthly figures.
- Per account, billed annually
- £9,719/yr£937 × 10 = £9,370, plus £349 already published per year.
Check the arithmetic
Across P7 + P11 + P12 + P17, billed monthly for a year: £937 × 12 = £11,244. The same instruments billed annually: £9,370. The gap is exactly two months — £1,874.
A three-year term pays eight months per year of service: 8 × 3 = 24 months. At £937/mo across P7 + P11 + P12 + P17, that is £22,488 for three years of service. Two years of monthly billing is £11,244 × 2 = £22,488. The same number: three years of service for what two years of monthly billing costs.
What a suite licence would change
Nothing yet, and I will not pretend otherwise. The totals above are the plain arithmetic sum of licensing each instrument on its own — that sum is a fact you can add up yourself. I have not directed a suite or bundle discount, so none appears here. Publishing an invented one would be the exact class of fabrication this site exists to argue against, and a figure I would then have to withdraw is worth less than an honest blank.
What has been directed is the commitment ladder below and, for the instruments licensed per seat, the seat bands underneath it. Both are anticipated and both await ratification. Multi-entity and multi-network groups are licensed by negotiation rather than by seat count: flat-rate instruments scale by entity, never by seat, and a negotiated number is not a list price so none is published. The full model sits on the pricing page, and the terms themselves on the licensing page.
Longer terms: one month less per year, per step
The months paid for each year of service fall from twelve on monthly billing to eight on a three-year term.
| Term | Months paid per year | What it does to the annual list |
|---|---|---|
| Monthly billing | 12 | Twelve months paid for twelve months of service. Costs 20% more than the annual list — that uplift is the whole difference. |
| One-year term | 10 | Ten months paid for twelve months of service. This is the annual list in the table above. |
| Two-year term | 9 | Nine months paid per year of service — a tenth off the annual list, with the figure held for the term. |
| Three-year term | 8 | Eight months paid per year of service — a fifth off the annual list, with the figure held for the term. |
Standing policy — read beside every figure above
- No promise of profit, ever. Hadal makes no performance claims and carries no implied edge. Past measurements describe instrument behaviour — never future returns.
- You own risk management. Hadal cannot control it and does not insure it. Good tools do not fix bad discipline — and this site says so.
- Analytical tools, for discretionary use. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Every decision, and every outcome, is yours.
The same statement stands in the footer of every page.Terms Privacy
How the instruments connect
Input, then which instrument runs, then what it returns, then what the next one consumes. This diagram describes the workflow only. No step on it is a result, and this family has published none.
- 01
Input: the terrain series and its as-of timestamp
A listed options chain, a positioning report, or a multivariate price-and-liquidity panel — each carrying its own cadence and, where the source is lagged, the lag between report date and publication date.
- 02
P17 Joint Change-Point Monitor is the shared detection core
Watches the panel as one object and returns breaks with per-channel attribution against surrogate-calibrated thresholds. This is the core the next step consumes rather than re-implements.
- 03
P12 Positioning / COT Intelligence points that core at positioning data
Returns z-scores with the lookback printed, flips with their dates and magnitudes, and the resolve-versus-fizzle split with its denominator — publishing the honest null where the data cannot support a break call.
- 04
P11 Regime Feed labels the state the panel is in
Returns prefix-stable regime labels that never repaint, each with its confidence and its boundary bars marked, plus recomputable transition receipts other surfaces can condition on.
- 05
P14 Chain Response Atlas describes the structure a break can propagate through
Returns cascade anatomy and the preconditions under which forced flow has propagated, with resolutions and fizzles both counted and the sample size visible.
- 06
P7 FX Gamma Map adds the listed-options layer
Will return strike-level congregation, skew migration and expiry gravity, each map carrying the chain snapshot behind it. The engine is built; nothing publishes from it until the data is licensed, and it is not simulated in the meantime.
ENGINE BUILT · LISTED-OPTIONS FEED NOT YET LICENSED
Each surface re-enters when its own source updates — the chain snapshot, the weekly report, the next bar. Nothing in the loop is restated as a forecast.
The Premium Add-on workflow, end to end: what enters the family, which instrument acts at each stage, and what the next stage consumes.
A process diagram establishes nothing about any market. It states how the instruments are wired to each other — not that any of them has measured anything.
The diagram is the shape; the suite-workflow documentation is the order you actually run them in, including which stages can be skipped and which cannot. It is published before the product, so the intended sequence can be held against whatever ships.
One worked example
NOT YET PUBLISHED
No worked example exists for this suite, because no measurement from it has been published. Rather than stage one from invented data, the five slots a worked example will carry are named in the empty figure beneath this note, with their contents stated and every slot empty. Nothing here is an example run, and no figure, date or digest appears in it.
- Inputs
The panel or chain the terrain was read from, its as-of timestamp, the reporting lag where the source is lagged, and the lookback window.
NOT YET PUBLISHED- The run
Which detector ran under which calibration, and the pre-registered definitions of a break, a flip and a regime label.
NOT YET PUBLISHED- Artifact digest
The digest of the source snapshot and of the detection output, so a break and its channel attribution can be recomputed.
NOT YET PUBLISHED- The finding
One dated structure — a detected break with the channels that carried it, or a positioning extreme with its base rate and its n.
NOT YET PUBLISHED- The limits
That terrain is not direction. The surface describes the ground you are standing on and leaves the directional judgement, and the risk, with you.
NOT YET PUBLISHED
The five slots a Premium Add-on worked example will carry. Each row states what the slot will contain; none of them contains it yet.
An empty structure establishes nothing. It shows the shape of the evidence this suite intends to publish, and the absence of that evidence today.
When the first example publishes it will appear here with its artifact downloadable and its digest on the Premium Add-on receipt page, where the steps for re-deriving it are already written out.