Joint Change-Point Monitor
When the regime breaks, know which series moved — and when.
£560/mo flat
- Annual term
- £5,600/yrTwelve months of service for the price of ten.
- Billed monthly
- £6,720/yr£560/mo × 12. Monthly billing costs twenty per cent more than the annual term — the uplift is on monthly, it is not a discount on annual.
- The difference
- £1,120/yrTwo months in twelve. Paying annually saves two months, not twenty per cent — the two are different numbers and only one of them is true.
Nothing on this site is on sale. There is no checkout, no cart and no payment link on any page. Prices publish pre-launch so they can be read, compared and checked rather than requested — seat bands, group licences and multi-year terms are set out in full below.
Standing policy — read this beside the figure
- No promise of profit, ever. Hadal makes no performance claims and carries no implied edge. Past measurements describe instrument behaviour — never future returns.
- You own risk management. Hadal cannot control it and does not insure it. Good tools do not fix bad discipline — and this site says so.
- Analytical tools, for discretionary use. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Every decision, and every outcome, is yours.
The same statement stands in the footer of every page.Terms Privacy
| Specification | Value |
|---|---|
| Catalogue no. | P17 |
| Suite | Premium Add-on |
| Methodology | How the Premium Add-on suite measures |
| Availability | Pre-launch — not on sale |
| Anticipated price | £560/mo · £5,600/yr |
| Delivery | Marketplace SKU · hub subscription |
| Published measurements | NOT YET PUBLISHED |
| Provenance artifact | NOT YET PUBLISHED |
Markets do not announce regime changes one series at a time. A structural break arrives jointly — correlations shift, volatilities re-rank, a dozen channels move together — and a battery of univariate alarms will either miss the joint move or drown you in uncoordinated alerts. The Joint Change-Point Monitor watches the panel as a single multivariate object and, when it flags a break, tells you which channels carried it.
The detection core is working end-to-end today. It runs three complementary detectors — Hotelling-T² statistics with Ledoit-Wolf covariance shrinkage for joint mean shifts, CUSUM for sequential drift, and PELT for retrospective segmentation — over a multivariate panel, and it has produced a hashed internal artifact: a twelve-channel weekly matrix, run through the full pipeline with surrogate-calibrated detection thresholds. The implementation is pure standard library, including hand-rolled, unit-tested linear algebra — no dependency between you and the arithmetic.
What it measures
The monitor reports breaks that have occurred and leaves what to do about each one to you.
- Joint breaks. Hotelling-T² over the shrunken covariance detects when the panel’s joint behaviour departs from its estimated regime — the move that no single-series monitor sees because no single series moved far enough alone. Ledoit-Wolf shrinkage keeps the covariance estimate honest when channels are many and history is short.
- Sequential drift. CUSUM accumulates small, persistent departures that a snapshot test would dismiss — the slow bleed into a new regime rather than the clean fracture.
- Retrospective segmentation. PELT partitions the full history into internally consistent segments, so a detected break comes with its context: what regime it ended and what regime followed.
- Per-channel attribution. For every detected changepoint, a decomposition of which series moved — the break attributed channel by channel, not reported as an anonymous multivariate alarm. This is the difference between “something changed” and “rates and the dollar changed; equities did not”.
- Calibration by surrogate. Detection thresholds are calibrated against surrogate data rather than asymptotic formulas, so the false-alarm behaviour is measured, not assumed. A worked panel now publishes with its artifact: twelve channels over two hundred and one weekly observations, the control limit and CUSUM parameters, the per-break attribution, an offline PELT cross-check that disagrees with the online alarm, and a rotation surrogate on which the panel’s single change point does not clear — read the measurement in The break that cleared neither bar.
What it does not do
The Joint Change-Point Monitor does not predict the next break. Change-point detection is the honest accounting of breaks that have occurred — sequentially, as early as the evidence permits, but never before it. Any instrument that claims to detect a regime change before the data contains one is describing its own noise.
Who it is for
Portfolio and risk managers monitoring many series at once, for whom the dangerous move is the coordinated one; anyone who has learned that twelve univariate alarms are not one multivariate answer.
The ship gate
No instrument is sold until it does what this page says it does. Where a page is written in the future tense, that tense is a statement about timing rather than a hedge about capability: the instrument is not finished, so it is not listed as available, not priced as available, and not sold. It waits.
Nothing described in this catalogue is a placeholder that will quietly disappear. An instrument that turns out to be wrong gets a kill-ledger entry, not a deletion — which is the only version of that promise anyone can check.
Commercial terms
Published in full, pre-launch, so they can be read and checked rather than requested. Every figure is an anticipated indication I have set and not yet ratified, and every derived figure is the arithmetic of the one above it — shown, not asserted. Nothing here is purchasable: there is no checkout on this site.
Why Joint Change-Point Monitor is priced the way it is
- What the figure buys
- The subscription covers a defined panel watched as one multivariate object rather than as a rack of separate alarms: Hotelling's joint mean-shift statistic over a Ledoit-Wolf shrunken covariance, CUSUM for sequential drift, and PELT for retrospective segmentation, run over the same panel so a detected break arrives with the regime it ended and the regime that followed. Every flagged changepoint carries per-channel attribution — which series moved and which did not — and thresholds calibrated against surrogate data rather than asymptotic formulae, so false-alarm behaviour is measured rather than assumed. The detection core runs end to end today over an internal panel, in a pure standard-library implementation with hand-rolled, unit-tested linear algebra; the calibrated thresholds and detected changepoints on published panels are not out yet and are not being sold as though they were. It reports breaks that have occurred. It does not forecast the next one, and it does not tell you what to do about the one it found.
- Why it is priced this way
- Flat per month because the object being watched is the panel, not the person watching it: a break is one break and its attribution is one answer, whether a single risk manager reads it or the whole desk does, so seats are the wrong denominator and the seat bands do not apply. The rate is quoted monthly because a regime monitor is worth paying for only while the panel is actually being run: monthly billing is the step of the term ladder that can be stopped when those series stop mattering to you, and the longer terms on the same ladder are there for whoever wants the commitment instead. What the rate covers is the running itself: detectors evaluated as each observation lands and calibration re-done by surrogate as the history extends, which continues whether or not a break occurs in any given month.
- What the alternative costs
- Every component of this exists in the open. PELT and CUSUM implementations are freely available, Hotelling's statistic is textbook, and a competent quant can wire them together — which is worth saying plainly, because it is true. What that leaves you holding is the hard part: estimating a covariance when the channels are many and the history is short, calibrating thresholds against surrogates that preserve the panel's dependence structure instead of trusting an asymptotic default, and turning an anonymous multivariate alarm into an attribution that names the channels. The free path is a univariate alarm on each series, which costs nothing and works until the dangerous move is the coordinated one, where no single series travels far enough to trip its own threshold and the panel shifts anyway. Doing nothing means the joint break gets identified from the position after the fact, rather than sequentially from the data as early as the evidence permits.
Every figure on this page is an anticipated indication awaiting ratification, and nothing here is purchasable. The reasoning above is published for the same reason the arithmetic below is: a price you can interrogate is worth more than a price you have to accept.
The two-SKU split
| Route | What it is | Anticipated |
|---|---|---|
| Marketplace SKU | Where this instrument ships through a platform marketplace, that SKU is the fully-functional standalone tier — the complete battery, running natively on your platform, no external account required. Never paid-but-crippled. | NOT YET LISTED |
| Hub subscription (this site) | The deepening: hosted runs, the published methodology behind them, and the content-hashed artifacts that let a stranger re-derive the result. This is the tier the figure on this page prices. | £560/mo · £5,600/yr |
The hub tier is priced at or below its marketplace equivalent. That is a standing rule the pricing table is rendered against, not an offer: a marketplace platform takes a percentage of every sale it processes, and that saving goes to the hub subscriber rather than to Hadal, so a platform fee can never invert your margin. No marketplace SKU has been listed yet, so the cell above reads NOT YET LISTED and the rule stands as a commitment rather than a comparison you can run today.
The commitment ladder
| Term | Months paid per year | What it means | Anticipated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly billing | 12 | £560/mo × 12. Twenty per cent more than the annual term — that is the uplift for paying monthly, not a discount for paying annually. | £6,720/yr |
| 1-year term | 10 | Twelve months of service for the price of ten. This is the annual rate every band below is taken off. | £5,600/yr |
| 2-year term | 9 | Ten per cent off the annual rate, held at that figure for the whole term. | £5,040/yr |
| 3-year term | 8 | Twenty per cent off the annual rate, held at that figure for the whole term. | £4,480/yr |
Eight months paid per year, across three years, is 24 months paid for 36 months of service — one year in three carries no charge. On this instrument the three-year term totals £13,440. That is 24 × £560 = £13,440, and two years billed monthly is £6,720 × 2 = £13,440. The same money. It buys three years instead of two, and the arithmetic is on the page so you can check it rather than take it.
Group licences, across entities
Licensing here is per account or per desk, not per seat, so a seat band does not apply and none is offered — applying one would be a category error dressed as a discount. The scaling axis here is entities: where the same instrument is run by more than one legal entity, desk, fund or network inside a group, the licence is negotiated as a single group licence rather than replicated entity by entity. Multi-network clients are exactly the case this exists for, and the commitment ladder above applies to a group licence on the same terms it applies to a single one.
Commercial routes
Pricing scales on entities and on term — one negotiated group licence across desks, funds and legal entities, never a seat band.
Licensing — seat bands, group licences and multi-year terms in full
Support
- TierPriority at this instrument’s base contract — ticket, prioritised, first response targeted at one business day. Support tier follows the annual contract value, not the price of a single unit — more seats, a suite licence or a group agreement raise the contract value and can raise the tier with it.
Support — the tiers, the ticket-only channel model, and what a target does and does not promise
Trial mechanics
The trial runs on the hub tier — thirty days, a full natural proof cycle, disclosed in plain words before you start it and cancellable in one step; none of it is live yet. Trial mechanics in full, by delivery class.
Read before you commit
The documentation is published ahead of the product on purpose — intended behaviour is only a commitment if it exists first. Start with installation and first run, then the limits: the conditions under which this instrument refuses to produce a number are the part worth reading before you pay. The full centre is at /docs/, and the support model states what a ticket does and does not cover.
Questions and answers
Answered from what this instrument publishes about itself. Nothing below is attributed to a customer, because there are none yet.
Why watch the panel jointly instead of one monitor per series?
Because a structural break arrives jointly: correlations shift, volatilities re-rank, a dozen channels move together. A battery of univariate alarms either misses the joint move or drowns you in uncoordinated alerts.
What does per-channel attribution give me?
The difference between “something changed” and “rates and the dollar changed; equities did not”. Every detected changepoint arrives with a decomposition of which series carried it.
Does it flag a break before the data contains one?
No. Change-point detection is the honest accounting of breaks that have already occurred — as early as the evidence permits, and never before it. An instrument that claims otherwise is describing its own noise.
Can I buy this instrument today?
No. Nothing on this site is on sale — there is no checkout, no card capture, and no product account to create. Every figure on this page is an anticipated indication I have set so it can be read and compared, not an offer, and final pricing awaits my ratification. The launch list is the only thing you can join today.
Change log
Joint Change-Point Monitor has not shipped, so there is nothing to record. When it does, every version lands here — dated, append-only, written by a person, and including the changes that removed a capability rather than added one.
Where this sits
Joint Change-Point Monitor is one of the instruments in the Premium Add-on suite. How that suite measures — the per-instrument battery, and the receipts each measurement will carry — is set out in the Premium Add-on methodology, part of the site-wide measurement methodology.
Also in the Premium Add-on suite
Joint Change-Point Monitor shares the Premium Add-on suite with four other instruments.
- P7FX Gamma MapDealer terrain from listed FX options — strike walls, skew migration, expiry gravity.
- P11Regime FeedState-space identification of market regimes in real-time.
- P12Positioning / COT IntelligenceResolves or fizzles — always published with n visible.
- P14Chain Response AtlasMap the cascading liquidations of leveraged market participants.
Research behind this instrument
Joint Change-Point Monitor draws on one research note on this site.
- The break that cleared neither barAsked as: "how do you know a detected regime change is real"