Positioning / COT Intelligence
Resolves or fizzles — always published with n visible.
£79/mo
- Annual term
- £790/yrTwelve months of service for the price of ten.
- Billed monthly
- £948/yr£79/mo × 12. Monthly billing costs twenty per cent more than the annual term — the uplift is on monthly, it is not a discount on annual.
- The difference
- £158/yrTwo months in twelve. Paying annually saves two months, not twenty per cent — the two are different numbers and only one of them is true.
Nothing on this site is on sale. There is no checkout, no cart and no payment link on any page. Prices publish pre-launch so they can be read, compared and checked rather than requested — seat bands, group licences and multi-year terms are set out in full below.
Standing policy — read this beside the figure
- No promise of profit, ever. Hadal makes no performance claims and carries no implied edge. Past measurements describe instrument behaviour — never future returns.
- You own risk management. Hadal cannot control it and does not insure it. Good tools do not fix bad discipline — and this site says so.
- Analytical tools, for discretionary use. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Every decision, and every outcome, is yours.
The same statement stands in the footer of every page.Terms Privacy
| Specification | Value |
|---|---|
| Catalogue no. | P12 |
| Suite | Premium Add-on |
| Methodology | How the Premium Add-on suite measures |
| Availability | Pre-launch — not on sale |
| Anticipated price | £79/mo · £790/yr |
| Delivery | Marketplace SKU · hub subscription |
| Published measurements | NOT YET PUBLISHED |
| Provenance artifact | NOT YET PUBLISHED |
Positioning data is the most confidently misused public dataset in retail macro. “Commercials are at a record short” arrives as a conclusion with no denominator attached: no count of how often that extreme has occurred, no split of what followed each time, and no acknowledgement that the reporting categories are dependent by construction because they are shares of one book. Positioning / COT Intelligence computes the version with the arithmetic still attached.
What it measures
The regulator publishes the positioning report free every week; what a subscription buys is the arithmetic on top of it.
- Positioning z-scores with the window printed. Every normalisation states its lookback beside the number. A z-score is a claim about a reference window, and choosing that window after seeing which one looks dramatic is the oldest way to manufacture an extreme.
- Flip detection. When a category crosses from net long to net short, or back — recorded with its date and its magnitude, so a crossing is an event in a series rather than a headline in isolation.
- Dependence-aware joint change-point detection. The categories in a positioning report are not independent series; they are components of the same open interest, and treating them separately double-counts every move. This instrument runs the multivariate lane — Hotelling T² with covariance shrinkage, CUSUM and PELT — with per-channel attribution of which category actually moved at each break. It is the same detection core as the Joint Change-Point Monitor, pointed at positioning data.
- Resolution versus fizzle, with n visible. A positioning extreme either resolves into a move or fizzles out. Both outcomes are counted, and the split never publishes without the denominator behind it. The base rates publish, and so does the control that tests them: the Antipodean arm reads 0.0385 on AUD against 0.1765 on NZD, a difference of −0.1380, and the artifact records
survives_nzd_control: false— the AUD reading does not survive its own control. A base rate published without the control arm beside it is a number looking for a buyer; this one is published with the arm that beats it. - Honest nulls. Where the data cannot support a break call, the null publishes. A period with nothing in it is a result, and it prints as one rather than being quietly skipped in favour of the week that had something to say.
What it does not do
Positioning / COT Intelligence does not predict direction. No statistic can. A positioning extreme is a description of how a crowd is arranged, not a timestamp for when the arrangement will cost them, and this instrument never converts the first into the second. It does not make a weekly, lagged, self-reported regulatory dataset behave like a real-time one: every reading carries both its report date and its publication date, and the lag between them is displayed rather than smoothed away. And it does not publish a rate without a denominator, on any surface — a base rate without its n is marketing wearing a statistic’s clothes.
Who it is for
Macro and swing traders who use positioning as context and want that context measured rather than narrated — and anyone who has been shown a record extreme and wanted to ask, out loud, how many times that has happened before and what followed each time.
The ship gate
No instrument is sold until it does what this page says it does. Where a page is written in the future tense, that tense is a statement about timing rather than a hedge about capability: the instrument is not finished, so it is not listed as available, not priced as available, and not sold. It waits.
Nothing described in this catalogue is a placeholder that will quietly disappear. An instrument that turns out to be wrong gets a kill-ledger entry, not a deletion — which is the only version of that promise anyone can check.
Commercial terms
Published in full, pre-launch, so they can be read and checked rather than requested. Every figure is an anticipated indication I have set and not yet ratified, and every derived figure is the arithmetic of the one above it — shown, not asserted. Nothing here is purchasable: there is no checkout on this site.
Why Positioning / COT Intelligence is priced the way it is
- What the figure buys
- The arithmetic on top of a public dataset, not the dataset: positioning z-scores with the lookback window printed beside every number, flips recorded as dated events with their magnitude, and the multivariate lane — Hotelling T² with covariance shrinkage, CUSUM and PELT — run across the reporting categories jointly, with per-channel attribution of which category actually moved at each break. The resolution-versus-fizzle split publishes only with its denominator attached, and periods where the data supports no break call publish as nulls rather than being passed over for a week with more to say; the base rates themselves are not yet published and ship with the artifacts that prove them. The boundaries are stated: no directional call, and no pretence that a weekly, lagged, self-reported regulatory dataset is a real-time one — every reading carries its report date and its publication date, with the gap between them shown. This is the Joint Change-Point Monitor's detection core pointed at positioning data, not a general-purpose monitor you can turn on panels of your own.
- Why it is priced this way
- Monthly, because the underlying report publishes weekly and what you are subscribing to is the reading that follows each release. There is nothing here to sell as a one-off — a positioning extreme from last quarter is history that anyone can recompute, and the value is in the next reading arriving with its window and its denominator already fixed. The subscription is the whole reading rather than a slice of it, because the reporting categories are shares of one open interest and are dependent by construction; the dependence-aware method only means anything if they are read together, and selling a single category would sell a fragment of a joint object and quietly reintroduce the double-counting the instrument exists to avoid.
- What the alternative costs
- The data is free. The regulator publishes the report every week, you can keep your own history, and a z-score is a spreadsheet formula — this is a reasonable thing to do and the arithmetic is not the hard part. What is laborious is everything that decides whether the number means anything: fixing the lookback window before you look at it rather than after, holding the categories jointly instead of reading them one at a time, and counting every prior occurrence including the ones that fizzled and the weeks with nothing in them. Free weekly positioning commentary is also widely available, and what it tends not to carry is the denominator — how often the extreme has occurred before and what followed each time — which is the question this instrument is built to answer rather than assume.
Every figure on this page is an anticipated indication awaiting ratification, and nothing here is purchasable. The reasoning above is published for the same reason the arithmetic below is: a price you can interrogate is worth more than a price you have to accept.
The two-SKU split
| Route | What it is | Anticipated |
|---|---|---|
| Marketplace SKU | Where this instrument ships through a platform marketplace, that SKU is the fully-functional standalone tier — the complete battery, running natively on your platform, no external account required. Never paid-but-crippled. | NOT YET LISTED |
| Hub subscription (this site) | The deepening: hosted runs, the published methodology behind them, and the content-hashed artifacts that let a stranger re-derive the result. This is the tier the figure on this page prices. | £79/mo · £790/yr |
The hub tier is priced at or below its marketplace equivalent. That is a standing rule the pricing table is rendered against, not an offer: a marketplace platform takes a percentage of every sale it processes, and that saving goes to the hub subscriber rather than to Hadal, so a platform fee can never invert your margin. No marketplace SKU has been listed yet, so the cell above reads NOT YET LISTED and the rule stands as a commitment rather than a comparison you can run today.
The commitment ladder
| Term | Months paid per year | What it means | Anticipated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly billing | 12 | £79/mo × 12. Twenty per cent more than the annual term — that is the uplift for paying monthly, not a discount for paying annually. | £948/yr |
| 1-year term | 10 | Twelve months of service for the price of ten. This is the annual rate every band below is taken off. | £790/yr |
| 2-year term | 9 | Ten per cent off the annual rate, held at that figure for the whole term. | £711/yr |
| 3-year term | 8 | Twenty per cent off the annual rate, held at that figure for the whole term. | £632/yr |
Eight months paid per year, across three years, is 24 months paid for 36 months of service — one year in three carries no charge. On this instrument the three-year term totals £1,896. That is 24 × £79 = £1,896, and two years billed monthly is £948 × 2 = £1,896. The same money. It buys three years instead of two, and the arithmetic is on the page so you can check it rather than take it.
Group licences, across entities
Licensing here is per account or per desk, not per seat, so a seat band does not apply and none is offered — applying one would be a category error dressed as a discount. The scaling axis here is entities: where the same instrument is run by more than one legal entity, desk, fund or network inside a group, the licence is negotiated as a single group licence rather than replicated entity by entity. Multi-network clients are exactly the case this exists for, and the commitment ladder above applies to a group licence on the same terms it applies to a single one.
Commercial routes
Pricing scales on entities and on term — one negotiated group licence across desks, funds and legal entities, never a seat band.
Licensing — seat bands, group licences and multi-year terms in full
Support
- TierStandard at this instrument’s base contract — ticket, first response targeted at three business days. Support tier follows the annual contract value, not the price of a single unit — more seats, a suite licence or a group agreement raise the contract value and can raise the tier with it.
Support — the tiers, the ticket-only channel model, and what a target does and does not promise
Trial mechanics
The trial runs on the hub tier — thirty days, a full natural proof cycle, disclosed in plain words before you start it and cancellable in one step; none of it is live yet. Trial mechanics in full, by delivery class.
Read before you commit
The documentation is published ahead of the product on purpose — intended behaviour is only a commitment if it exists first. Start with installation and first run, then the limits: the conditions under which this instrument refuses to produce a number are the part worth reading before you pay. The full centre is at /docs/, and the support model states what a ticket does and does not cover.
Questions and answers
Answered from what this instrument publishes about itself. Nothing below is attributed to a customer, because there are none yet.
Why does every rate publish with its sample size?
Because a base rate without its denominator is marketing wearing a statistic’s clothes. Resolutions and fizzles are both counted, and the split never publishes without the n behind it.
Does a positioning extreme tell me when the crowd gets hurt?
No. It describes how a crowd is arranged, not a timestamp for when the arrangement will cost them, and the instrument never converts the first into the second.
How is the reporting lag handled?
Every reading carries both its report date and its publication date, and the lag between them is displayed rather than smoothed away. A weekly, lagged, self-reported dataset is not dressed up as a real-time one.
Can I buy this instrument today?
No. Nothing on this site is on sale — there is no checkout, no card capture, and no product account to create. Every figure on this page is an anticipated indication I have set so it can be read and compared, not an offer, and final pricing awaits my ratification. The launch list is the only thing you can join today.
Change log
Positioning / COT Intelligence has not shipped, so there is nothing to record. When it does, every version lands here — dated, append-only, written by a person, and including the changes that removed a capability rather than added one.
Where this sits
Positioning / COT Intelligence is one of the instruments in the Premium Add-on suite. How that suite measures — the per-instrument battery, and the receipts each measurement will carry — is set out in the Premium Add-on methodology, part of the site-wide measurement methodology.
Also in the Premium Add-on suite
Positioning / COT Intelligence shares the Premium Add-on suite with four other instruments.
- P7FX Gamma MapDealer terrain from listed FX options — strike walls, skew migration, expiry gravity.
- P11Regime FeedState-space identification of market regimes in real-time.
- P14Chain Response AtlasMap the cascading liquidations of leveraged market participants.
- P17Joint Change-Point MonitorWhen the regime breaks, know which series moved — and when.
Research behind this instrument
Positioning / COT Intelligence draws on two research notes on this site.
- Does COT positioning predict reversals?Asked as: "does cot positioning predict reversals"
- The break that cleared neither barAsked as: "how do you know a detected regime change is real"